This study covers the latent demand outlook for clove cigarettes across the regions of China, including provinces, autonomous regions (Guangxi, Nei Mongol, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Xizang - Tibet), municipalities (Beijing, Chongqing, Shanghai, and Tianjin), special administrative regions (Hong Kong and Macau), and Taiwan (all hereafter referred to as "regions"). Latent demand (in millions of U.S. dollars), or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) estimates are given across some 1,100 cities in China. For each major city in question, the percent share the city is of the region and of China is reported. Each major city is defined as an area of "economic population", as opposed to the demographic population within a legal geographic boundary. For many cities, the economic population is much larger that the population within the city limits; this is especially true for the cities of the Western regions. For the coastal regions, cities which are close to other major cities or which represent, by themselves, a high percent of the regional population, actual city-level population is closer to the economic population (e.g. in Beijing). Based on this "economic" definition of population, comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a city's marketing and distribution value vis-à-vis others. This exercise is quite useful for persons setting up distribution centers or sales force strategies. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each region and city of influence, latent demand estimates are created for clove cigarettes. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.

In this report we define the sales of clove cigarettes as including all commonly understood products and/or services falling within this broad category, irrespective of product packaging, formulation, size, or form. Companies participating in this industry include British American Tobacco Bentoel, Djarum, Gudang Garam, Japan Tobacco, Nojorono Tobacco Indonesia, Philip Morris International, and Wismilak Group. In addition to the sources indicated, additional information available to the public via news and/or press releases published by players in the industry was considered in defining and calibrating this category. All figures are in a common currency (U.S. dollars, millions) and are not adjusted for inflation (i.e., they are current values). Exchange rates used to convert to U.S. dollars are averages for the year in question. Future exchange rates are assumed to be constant in the future at the current level (the average of the year of this publication's release in 2022).

This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all cities in China). This study gives, however, Professor Parker's estimates for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for clove cigarettes in China. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided and concentrated across the cities and regional markets of China. For each region, he also shows his estimates of how the P.I.E. grows over time. In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on strategic planning at graduate schools of business.

• 1INTRODUCTION
• 1.1OVERVIEW
• 1.2WHAT IS LATENT DEMAND AND THE P.I.E.?
• 1.3THE METHODOLOGY
• 1.3.1STEP 1. PRODUCT DEFINITION AND DATA COLLECTION
• 1.3.2STEP 2. FILTERING AND SMOOTHING
• 1.3.3STEP 3. FILLING IN MISSING VALUES
• 1.3.4STEP 4. VARYING PARAMETER, NON-LINEAR ESTIMATION
• 1.3.5STEP 5. FIXED-PARAMETER LINEAR ESTIMATION
• 1.3.6STEP 6. AGGREGATION AND BENCHMARKING
• 1.4FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS (FAQ)
• 1.4.1CATEGORY DEFINITION
• 1.4.2UNITS
• 1.4.3METHODOLOGY
• 2SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
• 2.1LATENT DEMAND IN CHINA
• 2.2TOP 100 CITIES SORTED BY RANK
• 2.3LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR IN CHINA
• 3ANHUI
• 3.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - ANHUI
• 3.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - ANHUI
• 3.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - ANHUI
• 4BEIJING
• 4.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - BEIJING
• 4.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - BEIJING
• 4.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - BEIJING
• 5CHONGQING
• 5.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - CHONGQING
• 5.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - CHONGQING
• 5.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - CHONGQING
• 6FUJIAN
• 6.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - FUJIAN
• 6.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - FUJIAN
• 6.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - FUJIAN
• 7GANSU
• 7.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - GANSU
• 7.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - GANSU
• 7.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - GANSU
• 8GUANGDONG
• 8.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - GUANGDONG
• 8.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - GUANGDONG
• 8.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - GUANGDONG
• 9GUANGXI
• 9.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - GUANGXI
• 9.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - GUANGXI
• 9.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - GUANGXI
• 10GUIZHOU
• 10.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - GUIZHOU
• 10.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - GUIZHOU
• 10.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - GUIZHOU
• 11HAINAN
• 11.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - HAINAN
• 11.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - HAINAN
• 11.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - HAINAN
• 12HEBEI
• 12.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - HEBEI
• 12.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - HEBEI
• 12.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - HEBEI
• 13HEILONGJIANG
• 13.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - HEILONGJIANG
• 13.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - HEILONGJIANG
• 13.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - HEILONGJIANG
• 14HENAN
• 14.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - HENAN
• 14.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - HENAN
• 14.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - HENAN
• 15HONG KONG
• 15.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - HONG KONG
• 15.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - HONG KONG
• 15.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - HONG KONG
• 16HUBEI
• 16.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - HUBEI
• 16.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - HUBEI
• 16.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - HUBEI
• 17HUNAN
• 17.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - HUNAN
• 17.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - HUNAN
• 17.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - HUNAN
• 18JIANGSU
• 18.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - JIANGSU
• 18.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - JIANGSU
• 18.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - JIANGSU
• 19JIANGXI
• 19.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - JIANGXI
• 19.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - JIANGXI
• 19.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - JIANGXI
• 20JILIN
• 20.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - JILIN
• 20.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - JILIN
• 20.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - JILIN
• 21LIAONING
• 21.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - LIAONING
• 21.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - LIAONING
• 21.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - LIAONING
• 22MACAU
• 22.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - MACAU
• 22.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - MACAU
• 22.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - MACAU
• 23NEI MONGGOL
• 23.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - NEI MONGGOL
• 23.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - NEI MONGGOL
• 23.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - NEI MONGGOL
• 24NINGXIA
• 24.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - NINGXIA
• 24.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - NINGXIA
• 24.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - NINGXIA
• 25QINGHAI
• 25.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - QINGHAI
• 25.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - QINGHAI
• 25.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - QINGHAI
• 26SHAANXI
• 26.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - SHAANXI
• 26.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - SHAANXI
• 26.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - SHAANXI
• 27SHANDONG
• 27.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - SHANDONG
• 27.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - SHANDONG
• 27.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - SHANDONG
• 28SHANGHAI
• 28.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - SHANGHAI
• 28.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - SHANGHAI
• 28.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - SHANGHAI
• 29SHANXI
• 29.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - SHANXI
• 29.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - SHANXI
• 29.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - SHANXI
• 30SICHUAN
• 30.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - SICHUAN
• 30.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - SICHUAN
• 30.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - SICHUAN
• 31TAIWAN
• 31.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - TAIWAN
• 31.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - TAIWAN
• 31.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - TAIWAN
• 32TIANJIN
• 32.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - TIANJIN
• 32.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - TIANJIN
• 32.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - TIANJIN
• 33XINJIANG UYGUR
• 33.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - XINJIANG UYGUR
• 33.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - XINJIANG UYGUR
• 33.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - XINJIANG UYGUR
• 34XIZANG [TIBET]
• 34.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - XIZANG [TIBET]
• 34.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - XIZANG [TIBET]
• 34.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - XIZANG [TIBET]
• 35YUNNAN
• 35.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - YUNNAN
• 35.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - YUNNAN
• 35.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - YUNNAN
• 36ZHEJIANG
• 36.1LATENT DEMAND BY YEAR - ZHEJIANG
• 36.2CITIES SORTED BY RANK - ZHEJIANG
• 36.3CITIES SORTED ALPHABETICALLY - ZHEJIANG
• 37DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTIES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS
• 37.1DISCLAIMERS & SAFE HARBOR
• 37.2ICON GROUP INTERNATIONAL, INC. USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS